Interested? Email us to enquire about the course.
Principles of Demand Forecasting
Bespoke course for demand and supply planners and inventory managers
About the course
Our bespoke course teaches you how to do demand planning using your software.
Two-day course
The course will be delivered over two days at your company's premises.
Real life examples
Examples are based on real life data and will be relevant to your problems.
Delivered by professionals
The course is delivered by leading experts in the field of forecasting, members of the CMAF and their colleagues.
Key features
- We teach forecasting fundamentals. You will learn how to address real life problems, not just how to operate your software.
- We show how to solve problems in your software. You will understand which parameters are appropriate for different problems and how models can help you improve your operations.
- We know practicalities of forecasting. This forecasting course is not taught in a vacuum; we know what problems you might face in practice and how they can be solved.
- Forecasting and beyond. It is not only about forecasting. We also explain how forecasting translates into demand planning and inventory management.
Who is the course for?
Course content
The topics for the course will be selected from the list below, depending on your company needs and preferences.
A summary of course content Accordion
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Forecasting principles
- What to do and what not to do in forecasting,
- Evaluating forecasting accuracy via error measures,
- Uncertainty, prediction intervals and their evaluation,
- How to inform decisions based on forecasting.
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Times series components
- Introduction to time series taxonomy,
- Basics of time series analysis,
- Classical decomposition,
- With examples in MS Excel.
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Simple forecasting methods
- Basic forecasting benchmarks, such as Naïve and Average,
- Simple Moving Average,
- Weighted Average.
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Exponential Smoothing
- Simple (aka Single) Exponential Smoothing,
- Holt's method (aka Double or Linear Exponential Smoothing),
- Winter's method (or Seasonal Exponential Smoothing),
- Holt-Winter's method (Triple Exponential Smoothing),
- Damped trend methods.
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Intermittent Demand Forecasting
- Challenges of Intermittent Demand,
- SBC classification and its modifications,
- Croston's method,
- Syntetos-Boylan Approximation (SBA),
- Teunter-Syntetos-Babai method (TSB).
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Linear Regression
- Simple linear regression,
- Multiple linear regression,
- Regression diagnostics,
- Transformation of variables,
- Variables selection,
- Using regression in promotional modelling.
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Advanced Modelling Approaches
- ETS (Error-Trend-Seasonality model),
- ETS with explanatory variables,
- ARIMA,
- Multiple frequencies,
- Combination of forecasts,
- Hierarchical forecasting: cross-sectional and temporal hierarchies,
- Judgement and organisational aspects of forecasting.
Learning outcomes
By doing this course you will be able to:
- Understand how forecasting models work;
- Understand what parameters of models mean;
- Analyse time series structure;
Meet your tutors
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Testimonials
Hear from previous attendees:
Brian Tann, Integrated Business Planning Manager at Arco
Fantastic course. It explained clearly how forecasting algorithms work and how to apply them in practice. It has provided us with the foundations to make a step change in our forecasting processes.
Eric Ling: Head Of Forecasting, Supply Division of Howdens Joinery Ltd
Following on from an audit that the team from Lancaster University conducted for us on how we were using SAP APO Demand Planning, they developed a tailored workshop for our entire Forecasting Team on Statistical Forecast Modelling Techniques.
Course prerequisites
Basic understanding of MS Excel. The rest will be covered in the course.
- You are not required to know anything about forecasting - we will teach you;
- You are not expected to know mathematics or statistics - we will explain the essentials without diving into complicated formulae;
- You do not need to be an MS Excel expert - we will support you.
Questions and Answers
Questions and answers about the course Accordion
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How long does the course last?
Two days.
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Where will it be delivered?
On your company's premises. If this is not convenient, we will agree on a different place.
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What is the language of the course?
The course will be delivered in English. All supplementary materials are also in English.
German, Spanish, Russian and Greek can be considered as alternative options for the bespoke course on a similar topic, but need to be discussed separately with the tutors. Get in touch with us on cmaf@lancaster.ac.uk
How to participate
In order for the course to run, we need to have at least 6 participants. Email us and we will discuss practicalities.
Email us